Staking Plan methodology can be adapted to any form of betting or investment, for example, stock market investments, casino table games, etc. where the advantages of staking can be transferred effectively, provided the correct type of plan is applied. A Staking Plan may increase profitability by 10 to 30 %.
Normal betting, as carried out by the majority of people, involves either placing a randomly selected bet amount on any event, according to 'gut feel'. There are no criteria applied to the amount of the bet. If the same bet amount is used for every event, this is called 'flat betting' or 'level stakes', where each bet has exactly the same weighting. There is no adjustment of the bet amount according to the odds being offered, the effect of previous results, the amount available for staking or the effectiveness of the system that is being used.
Definition of a Staking Plan
A Staking Plan is a pre-determined methodology of money management that, when applied to the process of betting or investing, promotes steady overall growth through maximised returns. It ensures that the process will continue by ensuring that funds do not run out, due to the application of protection measures against losses. This is done by assuming that future results will be similar or related to past events, though this fact can never be guaranteed.
The first basis of a Staking Plan is that a separate betting fund or 'bank' is used from which to stake and to which the winnings are added. This means that bets are never placed randomly without being accounted for to the bank amount, and there is a certain amount of limitation of liability in managing the money in this way, rather than betting out of everyday funds. The concept of having a bank and protecting it is fundamental to Staking Plans and applies the first stage of protection.
The Staking Plan is applied to a system of selection, which may use any criteria to select the next bet. It is important to note that a Staking Plan will never select a next bet for the user; it will merely indicate the bet amount.
As a priority, the Betting System used must be assessed in terms of its relative success and also to estimate the worst-case scenario for a losing sequence, ie. the maximum number of consecutive or near-consecutive losses. This eventuality must be allowed for in selecting the bank start amount and in the type of staking plan used.
How to Rate a Betting System
A Betting System is rated on 'flat betting' or at 'level stakes', ie. its performance is tested when a consistent bet is placed every time and this allows comparison of systems. Furthermore, points can be applied when assessing a system's success. Points gained by a Betting System are then a factor of the bet amount and the amount of funds held, and can provide a common level for rating, not related to currency.
An example of the application of points to a system might be taking 1 point as 2 % of a bank. With the bank amount of 2 500, 1 point will be 50.
Note: Staking Plan calculations must allow for commission amounts which may be payable on wins if an exchange is used for betting.
The most common Betting System rating is its Strike Rate. This is a measure of the relative success of the system, ie. the percentage of wins out of total bets. The higher the average odds, the lower the strike rate can be. When multiplied by the average odds, a Performance Ratio is obtained for a Betting System.
For a Staking Plan to work, a Betting System must be either successful, ie. having an overall positive result, or marginal, ie. it does not substantially gain or lose money, with the bank balance remaining around zero. A Staking Plan cannot make a successful Betting System out of an unsuccessful one, though some Staking Plans will assist in making a marginal system profitable. This does not mean that the use of a marginal system should be encouraged. The more successful the Betting System, the better the Staking Plan will be able to assist in protection of the bank and in magnifying growth.
Benefits of Using a Staking Plan
Use of a Staking Plan can prevent many of the common mistakes in betting. A Staking Plan immediately gives discipline to staking. It establishes a bank amount and imposes rules to every bet made. This prevents betting due to emotional reactions, positive or negative. It records every activity to provide a means of checking and cross-referencing a system. Bets are limited to the amount stipulated by the Staking Plan, which prevents wild or impulse betting.
A Staking Plan is the key to winning by protecting the bank from the risk that it is exposed to by betting, and encourages slow but steady growth rather than a 'get rich quick' mentality.
Bookmakers want a bettor to chase losses with blind hope, often counting on luck, and this is what will happen without the use of a disciplined Staking Plan. The most dangerous time is often at the end of the day when it is tempting to try to recover all the day's losses in one action. A Staking Plan continues from day to day, so there is no 'last race' and this will not happen.
A Staking Plan brings about slow growth through planning and encourages serious betting and sustained profits. The rule of "don't ever bet more than you can afford to lose" is ensured by the use of a Staking Plan.
Features of a Staking Plan
A Staking Plan will:
1) maximize ROI
2) protect the bank
3) indicate the next bet amount
4) prevent level stakes or flat betting
5) reduce and limit exposure
6) assist in making profits from betting
7) maximise the benefits of wins, minimise the effect of losses
8) maintain the lowest exposure when recouping after a losing run
9) position the bettor to gain maximum benefit from a good win
10) act on the effect of each bet, rather than overall performance or emotion
11) turn a marginal system into a profitable system
12) magnify profits in a profitable system
13) minimise losses during a long losing run
14) allow the bank to grow slowly and safely
15) control staking to build profits over time
16) record the results of every bet
17) balance to the bank
18) impose rules for money management
19) provide an exact bank balance at all times
20) enable the bettor to know their exact position
21) monitor and record each bet of a system
22) provides a full record of transactions for checking and recording purposes
23) give control over betting and provide a plan to which to bet
24) help prevent betting blindly or on impulse
A Staking Plan will not:
1) indicate what to bet on
2) turn a losing system into a profitable one
3) predict or guarantee profits
4) make a 'quick buck' but promote a slow, safe growth process
Types of Staking Plans
A Staking Plan relates the next bet amount to some aspect of the previous events, so a Staking Plan calculation might be related to the current bank amount or the odds offered. Alternatively, it can be calculated according to the relative success of previous bets or geared to recover lost amounts. The best Staking Plans are a combination of several of these methods.
A. Target Based or "Loss Recovery" Staking Plans
This type of Staking Plan involves setting an aim or target to be achieved. Once it has been reached, a new target is set. This means that bets are calculated towards the target amount over a period of time and the Staking Plan is designed to reach this amount regardless of results along the way. For a successful system this can mean steady growth of the bank as targets are set over time and profit is grown slowly.
Progressive staking plans follow this idea, but they must be used with caution, for example doubling up after a losing bet can quickly lead to large losses. Some 'Point Chasing' Staking Plans, which use a target based/loss recovery system, include the Martingale Staking Plan and the high risk Directors Staking Plan.
The danger with this type of system is that if bet amounts are designed to recover losses, the target increases with every loss and a long losing run may exhaust the bank.
B. Bank Based Staking Plans
These Staking Plans calculate the bet amount based on a percentage of the bank available for staking, ie. they run proportionally to bank amount. These are called Percentage or Bank Staking Plans and involve variable staking, sometimes for example as a fixed % of the bank. Examples include Rolling Bank and Square Root Staking Plans.
It must be noted that these methods do not take directly into account the performance of the system they are applied to, only indirectly, by means of the bank movements, though they are safer methods to use as the bet amounts are regulated by the selected bank percentage.
C. Increase Systems
These Staking Plans are directly related to wins and losses ie. to the Strike Rate of the Betting System to which they are applied. Examples include the Fibbonacci, Stepper/Master, Pocket and Percentage Profit Staking Plans.
The application of direct feedback means that these methods are the most responsive to the flow of events; however, this also means that they may not allow maximum benefit from a winning streak.
D. Combined Plans
There are many Staking Plans that combine variations of above plans, for example the Kelly Criteria Staking Plan uses a formula to calculate the next bet based on the strike rate and average odds for the system and then applies a bank percentage to obtain the bet amount. Winfactor Select Staking Plan uses a percentage of the bank according to the success of the system in a similar way.
What to look for in a Staking Plan
A good Staking Plan must recoup successfully after long losing runs whilst maintaining minimum exposure. Since every event presents a new situation, it should calculate a new next bet amount according to the revised bank position after each event.
When lay betting, it should be noted that a Laying Staking Plan must ensure that the bet amount is indirectly proportional to the odds value, ie. the higher the odds, the lower the bet value to a fixed risk amount according to points. Many Laying Staking Plans do not recalculate the bank amount after each event, losing profit potential.
Staking Plan software
Good Staking Plan software should allow easy input of results and give a quick, clear indication of the next bet amount. It may be useful to see the exact calculations of how this amount is obtained, but it is essential to be able to view information on the exact status ie. current bank balance and performance indicators for recent events. It must allow for the application of commissions where necessary.
Ideally, the Plan software should include the facility to test systems at flat betting. With an easy method of input of past results, it should provide as an output the necessary relevant parameters for system assessment and comparison, ie. the strike rate, performance ratio, etc. as well as a summary of the total amount that would have been bet and the return that would be achieved. This enables full 'paper testing' of systems.
Summary
Every race is a different equation so a bet should never be placed without knowing the outcome of the previous event and good Staking Plan software should quickly calculate and display the next bet amount.
By Steven-Lee Jones
Suggested Staking Plan Software incorporating the best methods mentioned above can be found at www.stakingplanprofits.com
Thursday, November 1, 2007
Steering Clear Of Unbettable Horse Races
Three out of five horse races are unbettable and this doesn't matter whether favorites or long shots win them. The fact is: The best horse doesn't always win and the fastest horse doesn't always win. One of the reasons for this is plain: Races are filled by racing secretaries eager to fill cards, not to produce easily handicapped winners.
Although many unbettable situations can be readily ascertained, many can not. Some situations are plainly ridiculous; others just confusing. I advocate, that you train your eye to see how not to bet as much as when to and how to bet. If you can correctly spot unbettable situations, you will greatly improve your chances of winning.
When I speak of unbettable situations, I do not refer to rainy weather or muddy tracks. Nor do I refer to situations outside of the mechanical character of the race itself. By an unbettable situation, I mean that mechanical element in the race itself, which will cause confusion as to the proper horse to bet on, thus preventing intelligent wagering. The following is a sketch of hazards that I have found which will decrease your chances of picking winners, and which, if not painstakingly avoided, will insure losses and incorrect choices.
An unbettable situation can be created by oneself. One who constantly watches the odds board is looking for trouble. He is looking for a crutch to lean on. He begins to look for a "hint" from someone who knows something, or tries to discover if the public agrees with his selection, so as to be psychologically prepared to rush the mutual windows. I have heard many people say, "This is the horse that looks like a winner, but how can he win at this price?" or, "The smart boys are on the number three horse, how can I go with this one?"
Well, to put it bluntly, there are no smart boys. No one knows any more than you do! Wrong, you say? Stop to think for a minute. There are eight horses in a race, and the owners of at least five of them probably feel that their horse is ready and can win. So who, then, are the smart boys? One of the eight has to win and seven others have to lose, yet the fans think that there is always someone who knows something more than they do - and they are waiting to get the tip! Get off the cloud. Figure it out for yourself - your selection is as good as the racing commissioner's!
It seems to be psychologically easier to bet heavier on an odds-on choice than on a horse, which is three to one. You are consoled by the fact that the public likes him, the public handicappers like him, and you like him. But the horse doesn't know that he is being approbated in this manner! Remember statistics prove that John Q. Public and John Q. Public Handicapper are wrong 66 percent of the time. The favorites win on the average of one out of three races. How does it make sense to follow some one who is wrong two out of the times?
It is far better to develop your own independent handicapping ability and disregard the public, the public handicappers, and the odds boards. I am not suggesting wagering on 20 to one horses, nor am I suggesting playing favorites. Instead, I suggest a happy medium between disregarding the public choice and betting your own choices! If these two happen to coincide, there shouldn't be any need to be unhappy about it.
by Jimmy Cox
About the Author
The Never Before Told Secrets On Handicapping Horse Racing To Win At Harness Races. Click the link below for a FREE online ebook!
www.handicappinghorseracing.net
Although many unbettable situations can be readily ascertained, many can not. Some situations are plainly ridiculous; others just confusing. I advocate, that you train your eye to see how not to bet as much as when to and how to bet. If you can correctly spot unbettable situations, you will greatly improve your chances of winning.
When I speak of unbettable situations, I do not refer to rainy weather or muddy tracks. Nor do I refer to situations outside of the mechanical character of the race itself. By an unbettable situation, I mean that mechanical element in the race itself, which will cause confusion as to the proper horse to bet on, thus preventing intelligent wagering. The following is a sketch of hazards that I have found which will decrease your chances of picking winners, and which, if not painstakingly avoided, will insure losses and incorrect choices.
An unbettable situation can be created by oneself. One who constantly watches the odds board is looking for trouble. He is looking for a crutch to lean on. He begins to look for a "hint" from someone who knows something, or tries to discover if the public agrees with his selection, so as to be psychologically prepared to rush the mutual windows. I have heard many people say, "This is the horse that looks like a winner, but how can he win at this price?" or, "The smart boys are on the number three horse, how can I go with this one?"
Well, to put it bluntly, there are no smart boys. No one knows any more than you do! Wrong, you say? Stop to think for a minute. There are eight horses in a race, and the owners of at least five of them probably feel that their horse is ready and can win. So who, then, are the smart boys? One of the eight has to win and seven others have to lose, yet the fans think that there is always someone who knows something more than they do - and they are waiting to get the tip! Get off the cloud. Figure it out for yourself - your selection is as good as the racing commissioner's!
It seems to be psychologically easier to bet heavier on an odds-on choice than on a horse, which is three to one. You are consoled by the fact that the public likes him, the public handicappers like him, and you like him. But the horse doesn't know that he is being approbated in this manner! Remember statistics prove that John Q. Public and John Q. Public Handicapper are wrong 66 percent of the time. The favorites win on the average of one out of three races. How does it make sense to follow some one who is wrong two out of the times?
It is far better to develop your own independent handicapping ability and disregard the public, the public handicappers, and the odds boards. I am not suggesting wagering on 20 to one horses, nor am I suggesting playing favorites. Instead, I suggest a happy medium between disregarding the public choice and betting your own choices! If these two happen to coincide, there shouldn't be any need to be unhappy about it.
by Jimmy Cox
About the Author
The Never Before Told Secrets On Handicapping Horse Racing To Win At Harness Races. Click the link below for a FREE online ebook!
www.handicappinghorseracing.net
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